NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence experienced a sharp decline in September, marking its weakest point since April 2014. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 6.7 points to 81.9, with the August figure being revised downward to 88.6. The survey for September gathered responses from September 1 through September 23. Consumers expressed more pessimism about current economic conditions and the outlook over the next six months. This decrease represented the third consecutive month of falling overall confidence.
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3 in September. This index reflects consumer opinions on current business and labor market conditions. The Expectations Index decreased by 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly drop. It measures anticipated income, employment, and business prospects over the upcoming six months. These figures indicate concerns that go beyond current conditions, with households also becoming less optimistic about the economic future.
Perceptions of the current business climate weakened during the month. Approximately 18.5% of consumers described conditions as good, compared to 18.8% in August. The proportion considering conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Labor market evaluations also declined, with 23.6% stating that jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5% in August, and 21.9% reporting that jobs were difficult to find, up from 20.3% one month earlier.
Inflation expectations rise amid increasing gasoline prices
Consumers also indicated higher expectations for inflation over the next year. The average 12-month inflation outlook increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median rose to 5.1%. According to federal data, consumer prices grew by 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.9% monthly increase in gasoline prices. AAA estimated the national average for regular gasoline at approximately $4.46 per gallon on September 29.
The survey also highlighted a softening in spending intentions across several major categories. On a six-month moving average, plans to purchase vehicles and homes both decreased. Expected expenditure on services also dropped during September, with consumers indicating less intention to spend on hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks. Conversely, vacation plans increased, with about 42.6% planning a trip within six months—up 0.5 percentage points from August—mainly driven by stronger domestic travel plans.
Outlooks for business, employment, and income decline
Expectations regarding business conditions, employment opportunities, and household incomes all weakened further. Only 15.9% anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August, while the proportion expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Just 14.0% expected more jobs to become available, whereas 28.4% anticipated fewer jobs. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% expecting income increases and 15.4% expecting declines in the next six months.
The Conference Board also observed declining confidence in household finances. Net assessments of current family financial situations turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence decreased across all age groups on a six-month moving average, and nearly all income brackets showed lower readings. Toluna conducted the monthly online survey for The Conference Board. The September preliminary results closed on September 23, with the next Consumer Confidence Index scheduled for release on October 27.