NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday following four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased roughly 119% since its bear-market low closed at 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, which was the index’s weakest close since November 2020. On Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, up 14.1% for 2026, having gained 1.2% during the most recent week.
This cycle represents the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and it is also the seventh to last at least four years. Its 119% rise is below the average gain of 184% observed across the studied bull markets. Notably, the 2009-to-2020 cycle surged 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 run increased by 582%. These earlier periods remain among the most robust and prolonged gains in the comparison.
Historically, the fifth year of a bull market has generally yielded positive outcomes, though results have varied between different cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year anniversary. For those reaching a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. The historical data also show an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during the fifth year. These figures reflect past market patterns and do not necessarily predict the current cycle’s trajectory.
Corporate earnings bolster ongoing market progress
Earnings from companies continue to be a key factor supporting the market rally. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings as of October 9 were running 29.6% above the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth surpassing 25%. At the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Among 19 index companies that have reported, 84% exceeded analysts’ average earnings expectations, with their combined earnings beating estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts project strong profit growth will continue through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 27.6% compared to the previous year, while full-year earnings are forecasted to grow by 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. Additionally, Barclays research indicates these companies account for roughly 75% of year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates. Consequently, technology-related sectors remain a significant part of current earnings revisions.
Rising interest rates accompany the fifth-year milestone
The ongoing rally occurs amid higher interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. Officials stated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. The September projections estimated median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 through October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields stay high as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. On October 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24%, and the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite these rising yields, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% during that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%. U.S. equities are now entering their fifth year near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.